The Ides of Macro
Conversations on trading, investing, and frameworks, all through the lens of global macroeconomics.
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Episodes
Friday Feb 02, 2024
Friday Feb 02, 2024
Recorded on January 22nd, 2023
Tyler Neville, Macro Analyst at Corriente Advisors, is a seasoned cross-asset trader with experience in several different buy-side institutions.
In this conversation, Roger and Tyler explore in depth the opportunities that lie ahead of the last decade of the Fourth Turning: from centralized to decentralized networks, to frontier opportunities in developed and emerging markets, as well as why active managers should be able to kill it in this environment.
It’s a multi-disciplinary debate that focuses on the most important macro trends of our time, well beyond just talking about Fed pivots or rate hikes.
#finance #investing #macro #bonds #BoJ #volatility #fourthturning #inflation #geopolitics
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0:00 – Tyler’s Background
03:11 – Decentralization vs Centralization Framework
08:31 – The Impact of Cash and Productivity Gains
13:00 – Could the Fed Surprise to the Hawkish Side?
18:25 – Active Managers Should Be Able to Kill It
25:10 – Sovereign Balance Sheets and Hedging Geopolitical Risk
32:53 – Frontier Opportunities of Decentralization
46:06 – The Shift from the Left to the Right
51:31 – Should Investors Pick Up Volatility Risk?
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If you want a deeper look at the work we're doing over here at Lykeion, investing at the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, then you can go check out our Lykeion Plus research below:
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Wednesday Dec 20, 2023
Wednesday Dec 20, 2023
Recorded on December 15th, 2023
Michael Nicoletos, former Emerging Markets’ focused Hedge Fund Manager and currently Founder and CEO of DeFi Advisors, has been investing in financial markets across assets for more than two decades.
In this conversation, Roger and Michael explore in depth the reasons why the US Dollar is in a structural bull market relative to other currencies. Michael’s core thesis can be found here.
#finance #investing #macro #bonds #volatility #usdollar #inflation
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0:00 – Michael’s Background
3:02 – US Dollar Bullish Framework
17:50 – The Relative Yield Story and the Eurodollar Market
29:56 – US Equities, Bonds, and Twin Deficits Importance for the US Dollar
37:05 – US Equities vs Emerging Markets, and US Dollar vs Commodities
43:18 – The Dollar Napalm Run
45:15 – Long-Term Portfolio Implications
57:40 – DXY Moves that Matter
60:00 – Short-Term Defensive Trades
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If you want a deeper look at the work we're doing over here at Lykeion, investing at the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, then you can go check out our Research product below:
https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
You can also subscribe to the free weekly Lykeion newsletter here:
https://www.thelykeion.com/
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Tuesday Nov 14, 2023
Tuesday Nov 14, 2023
Recorded on November 9th, 2023
Samantha LaDuc, founder of LaDuc Capital LLC, is a Macro-to-Micro strategic technical analyst, educator, and trader. She's known for "market timing" analysis, where she takes into consideration macro event risks, institutional money flow, and cross-asset price action to forecast sector rotation and directional market moves.
In this conversation, Roger and Samantha explore the 2024 outlook for equities, bonds, and the US Dollar, the outlook for wage inflation, and the unintended consequences of the BoJ's monetary policy.
#finance #investing #macro #bonds #BoJ #volatility #USDollar #inflation
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If you want a deeper look at the work we're doing over here at Lykeion, investing at the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, then you can go check out our Research product below:
https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
You can also subscribe to the free weekly Lykeion newsletter here:https://www.thelykeion.com/
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Tuesday Oct 10, 2023
Tuesday Oct 10, 2023
Recorded on September 4th, 2023
Imran Lakha is the founder of Options Insight and is an expert at using institutional options strategies to capitalize on investment opportunities across global macro asset classes.
Using his expertise, Imran demonstrates how investors can better position themselves to leverage their capital for maximum returns while protecting their portfolios from downside risk.
In this conversation, Roger and Imran explore multiple strategies across asset classes, including FX, commodities, individual stocks, index funds, and bonds.
#finance #investing #macro #bonds #fxtrading #volatility #optionstrading
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If you want a deeper look at the work we're doing over here at Lykeion, investing at the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, then you can go check out our Research product below: https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
You can also subscribe to the free weekly Lykeion newsletter here: https://www.thelykeion.com/
Monday Sep 25, 2023
Monday Sep 25, 2023
Recorded on September 20th, 2023
Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, sits down with Roger Hirst for an hour-long masterclass on trading through the 'potential' reflation trade.
The discussion includes the current macro setup, a commodities-driven market, including oil, natural gas, uranium, and precious metals, as well as Tony's mindset for trade execution.
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If you want a deeper look at the work we're doing over here at Lykeion, investing at the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, then you can go check out our Research product below: https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
You can also subscribe to the free weekly Lykeion newsletter here: https://www.thelykeion.com/
Friday Aug 18, 2023
Friday Aug 18, 2023
Recorded on August 14th, 2023
Will there be a long shallow recession?
Ed Harrison, Bloomberg's head of Rates and FX in the Americas, expects a slow-motion recession in the US. Different pockets of the economy have already been in a recession, but there’s not been an economy-wide event.
Ed thinks that the ultimate source of the slowdown could be tighter lending standards that slowly starve the economy of credit. This will probably play out at different speeds across the country, creating a shallow and drawn-out recession.
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If you want a deeper look at the work we're doing over here at Lykeion, investing at the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, then you can go check out our Research product below: https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
You can also subscribe to the free weekly Lykeion newsletter here: https://www.thelykeion.com/
Tuesday Aug 08, 2023
Tuesday Aug 08, 2023
Recorded on August 4th, 2023
Are Yields About to Surge Again?
What could cause instability in financial markets? Jesse Felder, founder of Felder Investment Research, thinks that long-dated yields could be the catalyst. They have been selling off in anticipation of future inflation fears and the massive schedule for the rest of the year. If 10-year yields break the highs, equity markets could be in for a shock. Jesse also thinks this is an attractive environment for gold to finally break the highs.
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You can read more of Roger and Jacob's research by subscribing to Lykeion Research here: https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
And subscribe to the free weekly Lykeion newsletter, covering the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, here: https://www.thelykeion.com/
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Get in touch at: hello@thelykeion.com https://twitter.com/thelykeion
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#macro #finance #investing #recession #energy #gold #oil #oilandgas #yields
Thursday Jul 06, 2023
Thursday Jul 06, 2023
Recorded on July 3rd, 2023
All things macro and volatility - The Secret Sauce behind the Market’s Success
Is the market caught in a self-fulfilling upward cycle, driven by a framework that’s dominated by structured products? Option market veteran Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors thinks so.
This same process, however, is like a stretched rubber band which may be reaching its point of reversal. We’ve seen this before, most notably in early 2018, though today it’s not just a handful of volatility products that are underpinning the market, but a massive surge in the application of alternative investment strategies. Cem has traded these scenarios with a successful strategy in the past.
Tune in to find out how to play the upside, in preparation for the downside.
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You can read more of Roger and Jacob's research by subscribing to Lykeion Research here: https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
And subscribe to the free weekly Lykeion newsletter, covering the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, here: https://www.thelykeion.com/
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Get in touch at: hello@thelykeion.com https://twitter.com/thelykeion
Sunday Jun 11, 2023
Sunday Jun 11, 2023
Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Praetorian Capital.
Kuppy invests in realities rather than biases, and whilst many investors have been prepping for an imminent recession for the last 12 months, Kuppy has sought out the sectors that have continued to show resilience: industrials and energy infrastructure plays.
Many of the latter have performed well despite the weakness in oil. So, what does he think now?
Tune in to hear Harris’s view on global growth, the energy markets, and navigating a world in which commodity investment still lags behind the expected demand over the next few years.
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You can read more of Roger and Jacob's research by subscribing to Lykeion Research here: https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
And subscribe to the free weekly Lykeion newsletter, covering the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, here: https://www.thelykeion.com/
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Get in touch at: hello@thelykeion.com https://twitter.com/thelykeion
Thursday May 11, 2023
Thursday May 11, 2023
Recorded on May 8th, 2023
Jacob Shapiro is the "Geopolitics Masterbrain" here at Lykeion, and a Partner & Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments.
In this episode, Roger and Jacob explore how the geopolitical landscape impacts investing frameworks and horizons. Is geopolitics a valid input for investors? Roger delves into what Jacob thinks are the key geopolitical drivers today, why they matter, and how to build an investment framework around them.
They look at some of the key themes of this moment in time: China, USD hegemony, and the opportunities within de-globalization. But beware of the hyperbole. Jacob also points out that some of the biggest stories and intoxicating headlines can often be the least interesting geopolitical drivers.
The relevance of geopolitics to investing, however, is rising and investors will increasingly need to incorporate these trends into their investment framework over the coming decade.
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You can read more of Roger and Jacob's research by subscribing to Lykeion Research here: https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
And subscribe to the free weekly Lykeion newsletter, covering the intersection of business, finance, and geopolitics, here: https://www.thelykeion.com/
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Get in touch at: hello@thelykeion.com https://twitter.com/thelykeion
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#macro #finance #investing #recession #geopolitics #China #usdollar